The Economy

[hancadam]

Whats everyone's take on the economy?

I work for a very large wealth management bank and things are getting really gloomy. Most of the brokers I talk to are very worried. They talk about pulling all of their clients money out of the market. I been hearing the term "The Great Depression 2.0" a lot. Also, seems to be more and more main stream media reports that are gloom and doom.

Whats everyone's take on ours and the Worlds Economic Situation? Am I just overexposed to the economy because of my job or do you guys feel the same way? Is anyone else stocking up?

I personally believe we are in for some very hard times. This type of economic environment also ferments war and hate making things worse.

Please no political crap, that's part of our problem. Both parties got us into this mess going back to FDR with all having a part.

[300rman]

the only reason the stocks havent totally bombed yet is because China is buying them all up, according to our family friend with his masters in law and economics.

we havent even seen bad yet. when the shat hits the fan and food shipments stop, then you will really see BAD.

[Yamahondaman]

i don't know about bank's,stock's,lending,money market's,401k's,etc... but last year i made 1500.00 buc's more than i did in 1991 ....That's why i didn't GIT to go to TrikeFest for two year's... a friend of mine told me to make my own economy.. like shaq said... "Skill's make Mill's" !! sooooo
the past 2 year's i have making Billet and Stainless stuff for you guy's ... some cash here and there help's out when your Employer is STUPID..
I'm going to drive my 1988 Ford truck to TF10 . it has 414,000 miles on it ... SAME MOTOR ...never been apart yet .. if it break's down....
Billy can pick me up on his way back to FLA. !! :-)

[whyzee]

wall street is just beginning to realize that we still HAVE an economy because 2 in 5 americans said " enough" and gave up paying either thier first or second mortgage and began living again off of that money to buy food , gas, clothes, go out to a dinner once in a while. When all of Wall Street finally realizes this, the market will drop below the 2008 lows. and say goodbye to a few more big banks and brokerage firms, CITI will be the first, then ING.
You can count on this, and I HATE being a bear, and I am not short any stocks. The OBAMA effect is beginning to wear off on wall street ! and you can quote me on that !

[hancadam]

Comments like this on "main stream media" are very alarming.

Investment Banker: It’s Going To Get Nasty – Buy Land, Barbed Wire And Guns
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37549417

Canadian banks have fared very well in this economic mess so it concerns me that BMO (Bank of Montreal) is advising clients to go to cash now.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bmo-has-simple-message-its-clients-go-cash-now

[whyzee]

good readings! Thanks for sharing.
There is a real reason why gold just keeps making higher highs almost daily.

key words in that article that are soo true and horrible news ' the cost of capitol is going up, and the availability is going down'
that does not bode well for any growth!

I will be first in line signing up at the CCC camps!

[Mr_RPM]

as history repeats itself, all great empires fall. is it time for ours to fall? i dont know. but ill act like it is, so when it doesn't ill be happy, and if it does i wont be surprised or panicked like everyone else.
even if things go bad i will just try to enjoy the beauty of life and nature. nothing wrong with going back to the old school way if we are forced too.

[dcreel]

Just wait until the gas prices hit $5/gallon this summer. Thanks again BP.

[factoryX]

I can't really say whats going to happen, but I do know that there will be some house cleaning November, And a major foundation check in 2012.

[250rAL]

I haven't really noticed the economy being that bad. Sure I made a little less last year but it was just not as much overtime which is fine with me. My employer was a little slow for a while but still making a good profit and now we've picked up and hired a bunch of new people. One of the things we make is seat shells for lawn tractors and we make a lot of them. It can't be too bad if they're still selling a ton of new tractors -- not exactly a necessity. I like the fact that when they say it's so bad, the gas gets cheaper.

[Billy Golightly]

I'm seeing some increases in activity locally. 7-8 months ago seemed much worse than now.

I'm just not sure if there is a slight upward hump before it falls back down even deeper, or if we're in a true upward climb again.

[JayBone]

Depending on your age and how much you can save is important. It's postioning yourself for a good retirement whatever it maybe to that person. Let banks fail, and things collapse, we are still a great nation and still more powerful than we are led to believe by the news. Business's are like the population when one dies another fills there place and it not be exactly the same, but won't change because it's a process that works and will always work. Unless we blow up the whole place. ha! I'd like to see a MAD MAX trike build...for the future now.

I worry about my parents in there 60's and pop close to retirement. They weren't savers like myself. They lived a simple life and enjoyed each others complany without the major retirment plan. I am a saver and always have been. I'm in my late 30's and i see the economy to be benificial for me in time. I'll continue to be cheap and be a very poor consumer of goods. This way very little in my life has to change becuase i need a little to live. My basic needs, Food, Home/w/garage, Beer, smokes, gas, 200x, car/w/trailer, $50 bucks to get into most ATV parks & my girl friend w/benifits.

[hang&rattle]

Yes, the U.S. empire WILL flounder. I'm the black sheep of the family, but my mom & dad are pastors. I'm also a history buff, I've tried, but not a good Christian by any means, but enjoy the study of the history of the world & have been doing it for my own enjoyment for 25 yrs., the bible is an excellent history book, is all there, and so many others. It's inconcieveable in an Americans mind that this country will fail. Wake up! Look around. Research & study. It is a historical, mathematical, and problematical fact this country will fail. America wil be a 3rd world country. It will be knocked off it's high, prosperious horse. We will still bond together as people and survive, but remember, this is no longer a free country. A politician is bought & paid for, and we Americans cannot afford one. We have no products to produce. No steel, lumber, beef, etc.. We are not a world leader in anything. Our military is laughed at, do you think Iran, N. Korea, or Russia is the least bit intimitated? We will jus' have to learn to live with less materialistic means is all. I could write a book with all the numbers and facts to show everyone, but all anyone needs to do is look around and see, it all adds up, it's obvious. We just have to learn to live with less material means and less freedoms.

[hancadam]

I for one will not learn to live with less freedoms. Hopefully that's not what most people accept. Elaborate on what you mean please.

Thanks for all the comments guys. Its very interesting to hear what other "everyday people" like myself think and feel. I hear from uber rich all day long. Seems like a mixed bag so far.

Hang makes a good point. History does not paint a pretty picture. We are either in for a 10 year adjustment period (downgrade in standard of living), or massive war in my opinion. History has shown that bad economic times lead to war or civil unrest. Hopefully history will not repeat itself.

One interesting fact is that it took our country 200 years to get 800 billions dollars in circulation. Meaning the amount of money in everyone's hands, not whats held electronically. We have doubled that amount in the past year. That to me is very alarming.


http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/9346/charts.jpg (http://img72.imageshack.us/i/charts.jpg/)

[hancadam]

Again, I am exposed to more talk than most people and most of it I don't fully understand. But the past month or so things sound really bad. Some "experts" are saying the end of this summer will be when it all starts to go down because of the bond market, the euro, and commercial real-estate bubble. Then once the Bush tax cuts run out at the beginning of next year businesses may cut back drastically once cost go up.

Then you have the prospect of war in the Middle East and North Korea causing more uncertainty. Then you have the gulf oil spill making more regulations on oil production possibly raising gas prices in the future further hurting peoples wallets. NOAA is predicting a very active hurricane season to top it off. I know all of these are what ifs and may never happen, but they create more uncertainty for the markets further hurting the economy.

Then add all the debt to he equation, sounds like we could have a perfect storm.

[factoryX]

Yes, the U.S. empire WILL flounder. I'm the black sheep of the family, but my mom & dad are pastors. I'm also a history buff, I've tried, but not a good Christian by any means, but enjoy the study of the history of the world & have been doing it for my own enjoyment for 25 yrs., the bible is an excellent history book, is all there, and so many others. It's inconcieveable in an Americans mind that this country will fail. Wake up! Look around. Research & study. It is a historical, mathematical, and problematical fact this country will fail. America wil be a 3rd world country. It will be knocked off it's high, prosperious horse. We will still bond together as people and survive, but remember, this is no longer a free country. A politician is bought & paid for, and we Americans cannot afford one. We have no products to produce. No steel, lumber, beef, etc.. We are not a world leader in anything. Our military is laughed at, do you think Iran, N. Korea, or Russia is the least bit intimitated? We will jus' have to learn to live with less materialistic means is all. I could write a book with all the numbers and facts to show everyone, but all anyone needs to do is look around and see, it all adds up, it's obvious. We just have to learn to live with less material means and less freedoms.

I agree to a certain point. But yes a lot is going to be lost and were not in last place yet, but debt will move us there. Problem is people are not spending money and saving it. Again there will be cleaning and not all hope is gone.

[hancadam]

Hopefully we will get true Conservatives that believe in the Constitution, not the Republicans we have had lately. Currently there is a thin gray line between most Democrats and Republicans. That's why there is no point in arguing the politics of our situation unless we get some true Conservatives in office.

[JayBone]

It will take a long time before we become (if) we become a 3rd world country. The sign to watch for is when all of our rich begin to move to china or another richer country i guess. I fail to see Buffet hop the next Jetblue to Brazil, or Gates hitting up China or T. Boone Pickens running to Austraila.

The bible maybe a good read about history. I don't know i never read it. If it comes out on audio book maybe i'll take a few days to listen.

The same stuff has happen the last depression and it will begin a turn around, but like everything. It will take time. A car crash happens in seconds, but repairs take forever.

About our military. We maybe laughed at by other countries, but that's beacuse we have a weak leader. Our arsenal is very impressive to include the things you have only saw on discovery channel. That stuff is years old by the time it hits tv. If we were to worry about anyone it is China's naval fleet. They are catching us.

[hang&rattle]

True hancadam, we need representatives to actually stick by are rights, not change them to suite special (better paying) interests. Not a conspirest, just seeing what is actually there. For instance on the lesser of freedoms. It is actually illegal to pray to God in school, supreme court has passed that national law; no freedom of religion. You cannot speak out against the Gov't. I.e., which political activists (talk show host) etc., have had their program pulled? Jus' think about it. I ride in the mountains and countryside. This is my own experience: martial law, sounds funny? Even on public and forest service roads, special U.S. security forces (blue uniforms), guard the 1000's of missile silos here. The don't ask you to vacate the public road or area, they point their gun at you and TELL you, it's happend to me personally more than once. The Govt., now has, somewhat, comtrol of the banking/money, who will get loans?, whoever is rich enough to pay the politicians, as always. Now the govt. controls health care, any thing the govt. gets control/power of it rights new laws, that means eliminating our right to adapt to those laws. Big example of change of constitution is gun rights. For protection and hunting. Not allowed to save or feed family?

[JayBone]

If you are working and can afford it, buy things that are liquid. Buy it sit on it. Set a price on what you want for it and sell when it's worth just that. no more! That will work for anything.

Quotes:
Politics is suppose to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first. Ronald Regan.

Double-no Triple-our troubles and we'd still be better off than any other people on earth. Ronald Regan.

[hang&rattle]

JayBone is right on. Tangible wealth. Barter/trade. Money may not be worth what is was a month ago, but someone will need transportaion, tools, furniture, or woodstoves etc.. My 200x gets such good gas milage, I haven't drivin' my car or truck in 6 days, but will need help with replacement parts from members to save $ on gas, & in return they make money on their saving and finding parts.

[oldskool83]

im not struggling at all but i do see other on the vereg of loosing it all any given day of the week. lucky ive been on manditory over time for almost a year, i hate the hours but love the cash....i end up saving it.

i feel the effects of everything will take about 10 years to turn around. ever since i was a seinor in highschool it seemed like the world was going to hell. 911 was the start of everything i feel.

lucky my employer changed our 401K and im making mad coin now due to them depositing weekly controbutions per week now and not per quarter. i cant honestly say the economy is hurting me...the stuff happening over seas and with china is keeping me on maditory OT. then again everything i do is a direct end result to track and kill people, somthing that unfortinaly happens that i dont agree with.

[hancadam]

I read recently that on average any given city in the US has a 3 day supply of food at the stores for its population. This was really put into perspective with all the flooding we just had in May here in TN. So we have been stocking up on food and other day to day items. My wife has been wanting to do this anyway. We have about a year of food. We camp a lot and its food we eat so we can rotate it out and not waste any.

It use to be normal for Americans to have a cellar/pantry/basement full of food before we became so consumer based. We now have a garden and chickens as well. Trying to to give ourselves a buffer incase we do lose jobs or have bad economic times. People think I am weird for doing this. I just don't want to rely on the government for anything if at all possible if things do get crazy.

Anyone else trying to be self sufficient?

Oldskool can you share what it is you do? If not understandable.

[oldskool83]

thats just called being smart bro!

i am a mechanical drafter for a military/aero space defense company. the work we do is normaly government contract work. we do radar tracking systems, work for the medical products feild too to be used in hospitles and such. manily transponders, antennas used to track missels, i cant elaberate too much more.

with out me saying somthing i shouldnt heres the company website.

www.herley.com

[hancadam]

Pretty ironic, all this bad economy talk yesterday and today big layoffs at work. My manager was just walked out.

[300rman]

. Our military is laughed at, do you think Iran, N. Korea, or Russia is the least bit intimitated?.



The only reason our millitary is laughed at is because all the liberals make a big deal out of soldiers beating the prisoners a little.....any other country would ruthlessly torture captured troops and never bat an eye....we do it, and the lame losers back home get their panties all in a bunch.....were kinda like mall cops...cant do a damn thing to noone.

if they turned the millitary loose, they would REALLY tear stuff up.....they could turn Ahfghanistan into a smoldering crater in a heartbeat if it wasnt for the damn liberals.

[hinddee29]

First I was a Union Commercial Painter and Layed off Sept. 08. Thing your bad, lost my truck and just about lost my house. 9 months later I got a seasonal job with the Department of the Interior painting. This job was provided by the one of Pres. putting people back to work plans. I'm on my second season now.
I'm also a disabilied vet and in a VA program to change careers. Anyway in seeking a degree in Homeland Security. From what I've been learning people are all up tight about their freedoms and they should be, as I'm one of them. Most americans don't know or stop to think about that this nation is full of sleeper terrorist cells foreign and domestic. To catch these people we will have to find a comon ground on how the gov. searches for these people to help find these cells.

I don't think we have seen the worst of anything yet. Far as our military getting laughed at is because capital hill won't let the troops do their jobs, and It's always been this way. In my opnion we are already in another world war, just most of the shooting hasn't happened yet. I think what needs to be done is to start the war machine back up as we did in WWII, and use some of that market recovery money to reopen military post and bases Clinton closed and put american back to work in our armed forces and infrastructure.
About losing our super power I don't know maybe. Our nation started out with a few colonies of farmers and we defeated the worlds largest super power. I think we have what it takes to stay strong it's in our DNA, but like our forfathers the price will be GREAT to keep it. History has proven this as well. I do agree with Hang about living with less. I think going back to basic is what this country just may need to make.

[Dirtcrasher]

I'll merely share what I'm thinking.......

I've talked with MANY, who are still down to a crew of 2 (one usually being the owner) trying to keep things afloat.

There is some building going on, but not much. Be it Commercial or Residential.

I have some side stuff going un nut it takes a TON of legwork as far as follow up phone calls to the customer and vendor. I's hours of time to nail down one job.

AND if you guys haven't figured out by now, there pretty much isn't a damn thing I can't do. Whether the customer has the cash, is another story.

WALMART is pushing this "Great Value" brand which is from there Vendors and slowly, all the regular brand stuff is going bye bye.

We may last this lifetime (and I'm talking the 40yo guys from the 3Wheeler era) but GOOD LUCK to the rest of you.

Our country is so far in debt, yet we can spill millions of gallons into the ocean and WE will suffer the consequences.

I hope they really push the hybrids and green chit because capping dumps doesn't cut the mustard.

When my dad was young, in the 50's, they would SCRAPE the mold off the jelly and eat away; Never getting sick. If you threw out that jelly, you got whacked with the belt.

Now, guys ignore bearings and chain adjustments and ruin LH 250R cases - we are a WASTEFUL society and we will all pay but your poor children will pay the worse.

Time to get an independent back in the oval office..................

SAD SAD WORLD!! Go get your IPOD though or your TABLET..............................

[300rman]

Hey DC, i was reading an interesting article the other day. all the "green" movement over the last....however long people gave a chit, had been flushed down the toilet ten-fold as soon as that volcano erupted as far as carbon emissions go. im all for not dumping toxic crap into the water and being careful, but the EPA is getting out of hand.

The EPA is truly what is killing this country. take for example what is happening RIGHT NOW. I dont know where you guys have been, but it is now illegal to remove old paint off woodwork with a torch (by far the easiest way to strip it), and if you HAVE to work on a fixture with old paint, you have to set up warning rope, tents, and all kinds of BS. REMODELING COMPANIES ARE GOING TO FALL, OURS IS ALREADY SUFFERING. No client is going to pay for all the extra time it takes to do this crap, not to mention the "approved" way to strip wood takes 3 times longer. And i dont mean just small businesses....I cant do it for my neighbor. Think its a joke? the fines for getting caught are astronomical....one of these violations could easily run a small business into the ground overnight.

Varnish- the only bit you can buy is right NOW. once its gone, ITS GONE. we just used some on a job, and the prices are reflecting its coming scarcity.

Got some aircraft stripper laying around in your shop? (business not home) YOU BETTER USE IT OR THROW IT AWAY by the deadline. after the deadline (cant remember off the top of my head, think its next summer) you have to keep the RECIEPT, MSDS, and a pile of paperwork for it for like 10 years on EVERY CHEMICAL you buy. automotive paint-shops and similar outfits are in for a HELL of a time keeping track of this crap.

this is just what i KNOW for sure they are up to, as many of my family members have had to take classes on all these new regulations, and i am hearing all about what these trailprotrailprotrailprotrailprotrailpro*&oles are up to.

hell, if you are spraying automotive finishes (like primer) out in the shop (not in the booth) the cup can only be 3 lousy ounces or guess what? FINE......

Ever wonder why CHINA can make something so cheap? it ISNT because their labor is so low....shipping this crap around the world costs money......they dont have to deal with any EPA.....

Before you know it, we wont be able to do do anything in this country. not because theres no money or jobs, but because EPA Regulations wont allow you to FART. The current administration is pretty sneaky in how they are shutting down this country.......

[huntinpecker]

This country is in trouble. Lawyers use law to their advantage, Politicians make law, most politicians are lawyers. Law isnt about justice its about procedure.Politics isnt about the country its about political advantage. The ballot will not change this. Their all power whores. All we can do is live our lives with honesty and integrity. Prepare for the worst and pray it doesnt happen. Bible, beans and bullets.

[Dirtcrasher]

Hey DC, i was reading an interesting article the other day. all the "green" movement over the last....however long people gave a chit, had been flushed down the toilet ten-fold as soon as that volcano erupted as far as carbon emissions go. im all for not dumping toxic crap into the water and being careful, but the EPA is getting out of hand.

The EPA is truly what is killing this country. take for example what is happening RIGHT NOW. I dont know where you guys have been, but it is now illegal to remove old paint off woodwork with a torch (by far the easiest way to strip it), and if you HAVE to work on a fixture with old paint, you have to set up warning rope, tents, and all kinds of BS. REMODELING COMPANIES ARE GOING TO FALL, OURS IS ALREADY SUFFERING. No client is going to pay for all the extra time it takes to do this crap, not to mention the "approved" way to strip wood takes 3 times longer. And i dont mean just small businesses....I cant do it for my neighbor. Think its a joke? the fines for getting caught are astronomical....one of these violations could easily run a small business into the ground overnight.

Varnish- the only bit you can buy is right NOW. once its gone, ITS GONE. we just used some on a job, and the prices are reflecting its coming scarcity.

Got some aircraft stripper laying around in your shop? (business not home) YOU BETTER USE IT OR THROW IT AWAY by the deadline. after the deadline (cant remember off the top of my head, think its next summer) you have to keep the RECIEPT, MSDS, and a pile of paperwork for it for like 10 years on EVERY CHEMICAL you buy. automotive paint-shops and similar outfits are in for a HELL of a time keeping track of this crap.

this is just what i KNOW for sure they are up to, as many of my family members have had to take classes on all these new regulations, and i am hearing all about what these trailprotrailprotrailprotrailprotrailpro*&oles are up to.

hell, if you are spraying automotive finishes (like primer) out in the shop (not in the booth) the cup can only be 3 lousy ounces or guess what? FINE......

Ever wonder why CHINA can make something so cheap? it ISNT because their labor is so low....shipping this crap around the world costs money......they dont have to deal with any EPA.....

Before you know it, we wont be able to do do anything in this country. not because theres no money or jobs, but because EPA Regulations wont allow you to FART. The current administration is pretty sneaky in how they are shutting down this country.......

Dad and I used the torch and scrapers and sharpened spoons quite a bit.

Then he moved on to "Peel-Away" and the stuff works fantastic with 4/5 or more layers but less than that and your screwed without bathing it in Lye........

EVERYTHING causes cancer, everything kills you but they still let people buy cigarettes that are KNOWN to be addictive and have crazy chemicals in there........ Who's getting the pay off on that gig!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[300rman]

Dad and I used the torch and scrapers and sharpened spoons quite a bit.

Then he moved on to "Peel-Away" and the stuff works fantastic with 4/5 or more layers but less than that and your screwed without bathing it in Lye........

EVERYTHING causes cancer, everything kills you but they still let people buy cigarettes that are KNOWN to be addictive and have crazy chemicals in there........ Who's getting the pay off on that gig!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i dunno, but we are the ones getting screwed, thats for sure!

i prefer the torch/scrapers because when your done, a light sanding and its ready for paint. just like painting virgin wood, and it can be all done in the same day. stripper is great for crap like shudders and other things with nooks and crannies..... (sharp spoon, and a 5-in-1 are the 2 best scrapers......you wouldnt believe how well a 5-in-1 removes the heated paint.......)

[jensenracing77]

i have started to stock up and sell off anything i know i am not going to use or need. problem is, if things get real bad what good will cash be? our only way out of this mess is to elect Conservatives. and yes, you will have to do some homework to figure out who that is. Republicans did not help our situation but Liberal Democrats have 90% of the blame. i know you did not want it to turn political but that is where it all started. if people jump on this independent band wagon then it is all over. if people vote independent then Obama will be in for another term. we need many hard core Conservative people in Washington and also need to cut major spending across the board (other than military). when you cut programs and spending you will have many people mad because nobody wants there program cut but it has to happen. Mitch Daniels has made people mad in Indiana by cutting programs and spending but now Indiana is doing better than most other states.

i pray that god will allow us to prosper again but why would he. we kicked him out of our schools, our courts and many other places. we even allow murder of unborn children. may God help us!

[hancadam]

Well said jensenracing77

I am also selling off some of the toys and other crap not needed.

[jensenracing77]

K illuminati

i am not really into the new world order conspiracy stuff. if that is what you are referring to. can you elaborate?

[Dirtcrasher]

My dad says "A Democrat can give away more than a Republican can steal......)

He owns tenament houses (which is how I know all phases of construction) and he is well of aware of what socialism has done. He's not too happy feeling that his tax dollars have gone to people that can work but refuse to work along with there "disabilities", and subsidized heat and rent payments he sometimes receives (BTW - he is not section 8, refused it from day 1, 40 years ago)...........

[hang&rattle]

jensenracing77- Bottem of you're second to the last post, you are right on, if everyone had knowlege of what you elaborated on, everyone would understand. When was the most destructive time period in U.S.? 1968 is when the supreme court took prayer out of schools and military, look at the next turbulent yrs., I'm 40 & have lived through a recession from late 70's to late 90's (Montana has always been one of the poorest states anyhow), but the last 3 years have been the worst finacially and morally I've seen (or mabee noticed?). Stick together men, we're gonna' need one another.